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In recent years, the “pension at 70” has been appearing more and more often. But is it coming or not? Is there no alternative to raising the retirement age to 70 or are there still other ways to counteract the collapse of the German pension system? It is precisely on these questions that science is arguing, but also politics. To make matters worse, in my eyes, you don't necessarily advertise yourself as a politician if you raise your retirement age to 70, when it is precisely the generation that is directly affected that makes up the largest electorate.


What is the current situation?

It is generally clear that our German pension system is about to collapse. And it was always clear, even to good old Otto von Bismarck, that this system only works under certain conditions. If these prerequisites change, the system also breaks down. So everyone knows, nobody has changed it. In my own opinion, this is sometimes due to the fact that no politician wants to put on his hat on which it says "I am responsible for the pension at 70" or "I am the one who has changed the previous pension system, this change for a certain time but the population and the media don't see it that way and tear me apart. ”

So that as a politician you don't even come up with innovative, uh sorry, "stupid ideas", the coalition agreement even stated that the pension level would be at least 48 percent by 2025 (Wuhuuu! It remains less than half of what I had before had!) and the contributions will not exceed 20 percent.

But this also means that the only thing that is left to pay pensions at this level in the future is the retirement age.

Unless you want to pump billions into the pension system somewhere.


Economic institutes did the calculations

Large economic institutes have just taken out the calculator and recalculated it. If the values ​​stipulated in the coalition agreement remain, then the retirement age must increase to 70 years, even more than 70 years.

Or you get around 500,000 young immigrants who pay heavily into the pension funds. Es-Ifo boss Hans-Werner even speaks of a few years ago of 32 million working people who would need it in order to keep the pension level and contribution rate constant until mid-2030. Not very realistic and also not very desirable according to Hans-Werner Sinn.


Is there an alternative to retirement at 70?

At first glance, the Hans Blöcker Foundation has thrown an interesting alternative on the table. According to them, the well-known calculations regarding the increase in the retirement age assume wrong bases.

This is because the number of nominally employable and the number of potential retirees are usually compared, i.e. people between the ages of 15 and 64 versus people aged 65 and over.

Instead, the Hans Böckler Foundation wants to differentiate between employed and transfer recipients, i.e., in addition to pensioners, also Hartz IV recipients, and that across all age groups. In fact, after this calculation you get a completely different result.

According to this calculation, there is a so-called “demographic dependency rate” (ratio of people aged 65 and over to 15-64 years) of 32 percent in 2013. In contrast, the ratio of transfer addicts to the gainfully employed was 56 percent.

This means that as early as 2013 there were fewer people who made money than people who received a transfer benefit.

In another calculation, the Hans Blöcker Foundation went deeper and also removed 1 euro jobbers and mini jobbers from the equation. This only included people who can really make a living themselves.

Under these conditions, the so-called “economic dependency rate” is 68 percent, more than twice as high as the “demographic dependency rate”.

The big difference lies in the fact that unemployed and early retirees are also referred to as transfer recipients. And this is exactly where the Hans Blöcker Foundation's solution comes in.


Another set screw opens up: the labor market

Older men, but also women, often don't work at all today, or if they do, they only work in the mini-job area. If you could now fully integrate these people into the job market, you could lower the dependency rate mentioned above.

This would increase the dependency more slowly, but it is greater. For the Böckler researchers, however, this is not a contradiction in terms. They argue that it is the rapid increase that poses a challenge to the pension system. And it is precisely this that must be throttled.


Labor market is not a panacea

But the experts at the Hans Böckler Foundation also admit that demographic change can not only be absorbed through the labor market. They also want to tweak the already known set screws, such as the contribution amount.

In their eyes, however, an increase in the entry age is not necessary.


Those who work longer live longer - is the pension so bad at 70?

For many older people, work is the only social contact point with other people. If this disappears, many people become lonely and are proven to die earlier.

Many retirees are now also pursuing paid employment, even if they didn't really need the money. But they need social integration. Everyone needs it. And this is very possible, among other things, by working with colleagues.


Private provision is essential

Even if I am writing here as an insurance broker and you may get the feeling that I am only writing this because I want to sell pension insurance and we are all crooks and criminals anyway, please give me the chance to give you a few important words to pave the way for private pension provision.


  1. No, it does not always have to be pension insurance

Honestly, there are so many different ways you can generate income later in old age. Good pension insurance is one of them. But also rental income, fund savings plans, company investments, etc. can give you a nice monthly income in old age


  1. The most important thing is that you realize the situation and act!

You could at least defuse this whole issue for yourself by simply starting with your own, private pension scheme. Educate yourself financially, for example through my free videos on YouTube about insurance.

And then just start!

With your first small, clever pension insurance, ETF savings plan, buy your first property or pay off your debts.

But start with it!


Your opinion about the pension system in Germany?

How do you see the pension system in Germany? Are hops and malt lost here? Does it only go on by constantly increasing the retirement age? Or do you really have to turn the entire system upside down and ensure, for example, that all employees (including civil servants and the self-employed) pay into the system? Please leave me a comment here.

For my part, I suspect that there is no way around the pension at 70 or later.

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